They observed a unique change in the shape of the electric load. Net load is the difference between forecasted load and expected electricity production from variable generation resources. Feb 20, 2020 the deepening duck curve has big implications for the future of renewable energy. The figures suggested that the power grid was due to face unprecedented strain. Here i extend the search to see whether duck curves occur elsewhere. The duck curve is a graphic representation of a mismatch between the time when a large supply of solar power comes onto the california grid and when the system demands power. All the operators in the west are having to deal with the duck curve every day, denholm said.
Load profiles from march were used as the reference for a typical spring day because seasonally low electricity demand makes the impact of solar and wind on net load more evident at that time of year. Optimal charging of electric vehicles for load shaping. The deepening duck curve has big implications for the future of renewable energy. The california duck curve that will jolt its power grid when the sun starts to set in california, theres one thing you can count on. Largescale solar projects from utilities have grown to about 7,000 megawatts in 2015, while rooftop panels on houses and businesses now supply. Caisos 20 illustration of the duck curve, in which net load is plotted versus the time of day for a particular california spring day.
The california iso is closely monitoring coronavirus covid19 developments, and is taking proactive steps to protect our staff, our customers, the community, and the electric grid. Oct 12, 2017 the duck curve is a snapshot of a 24hour period in california during springtimewhen this effect is most extreme because its sunny but temperatures remain cool, so demand for electricity is low since people arent using electricity for air conditioning or heating. The duck curve represents a transition point for solar energy. The duck is learning to fly in california and hawaii. Are california s ccs nonfuel operating and maintenance nfom costs increasing due to more hours of generating, more starts, and. Scottmadden energy industry update revisits the deepening. Weve covered the growth of the duck over the halfdecade since the term was coined by california state grid operator caiso, named after the shape of a grid with midday solar continue reading eia data reveals california. The duck curve is a snapshot of a 24hour period in california during springtime when this effect is most extreme because its sunny but. Californias duck curve has arrived earlier than expected.
Are californias ccs running more and more often to support the duck curve year round. The distinctive undulations in the data gave it a shape that caused it to be nicknamed the duck curve. Since renewable energy has become more common over the years, the duck curve is appearing more often and is getting worse. Aug 08, 2016 i took a look at electricity data recently from california and hawaii and i saw a duck that was learning to fly well, what i saw was that the socalled duck curve the load shape some grid. The more solar energy capacity increases, the more the curve. Index termscommunication system operations and management, distributed algorithms, optimization methods, largescale systems, load shedding. California gets quacking on ending duck curve problem senate bill 338, which mandates that utilities come up with nongas generation options to meet peak demand, was signed into law by governor jerry brown. In 20, the california independent system operator published the duck chart, which shows a significant drop in midday net load on a spring day as solar photovoltaics pv are added to the system. The original duck curve chart shows actual and forecasted net load for a representative spring day i.
Californias duck curve and what it means for the northwest. And as we shall see load curves that mimic the shape of a duck or at least the shape of a duck in flight are present in europe, australia and the pacific too. Hawaii is already confronting its duck curve california is not the only state that is facing the solar duck curve. Solar mandates skew duck curve, but storage, curtailment. Jul 18, 2017 learn about the duck curve and how solar can help balance hourly energy loads. This situation is the basis of the problem shown in the socalled duck. A more detailed look at the california grid data energy matters. Oct 12, 2016 marketwired via comtex atlanta, gamarketwired october 12, 2016 scottmadden, inc. The duck curve is driven by utilityscale solar in california, not distributed resources scottmadden compared system load data from california and hawaii to understand. One such issue is the california duck curve a real and growing phenomenon. National renewable energy laboratory, nreltp6a2065023, november 2015.
The duck curve is a forever part of the power system. Why the duck curve created by solar power is a problem. Grid operator data shows that solar generation can be as much as 19 percent of california s electricity supply on a typical afternoon. The duck curve is solar energys greatest challenge youtube. Texas does not yet have california s duck curve, but e. In california, its been known for years as the duck curve. The duck curve has played a major role in californias changing energy regulatory landscape since it was unveiled in 20, largely centered on the. Californias duck problem and how to fix it cheaply etcc. But some of the best solutions to the california duck curve problem may come from breakthroughs in energystorage technology. Ten years of analyzing the duck chart how an nrel discovery in 2008 is helping enable more solar on the grid today feb.
I took a look at electricity data recently from california and hawaii and i saw a duck that was learning to fly well, what i saw was that the socalled duck curve the load shape some grid. A phenomenon first observed in california around 20, electricity supplydemand duck curves are emerging on grid systems elsewhere in the us. For more on the duck curve, check out inside energys illustrated explanation from october of 2014 as california adds more solar, it grows more duck like. Us grid operators, utilities getting to know their duck. Eia data reveals californias real and growing duck curve. The data used in this post are from the california independent system operator corporation caiso, which combines grid data from electricity producers in california. This graph illustrates how the iso meets demand while managing the quickly changing ramp rates of variable energy resources. Why the duck curve created by solar power is a problem for. Largescale solar projects from utilities have grown to about 7,000 megawatts in 2015, while. The concepts of probabilistic duck curve and probabilistic ramp curve are proposed.
The problem with so much solar is that it generates the most electricity midday when the sun is most intense. In the morning, as solar energy floods the grid, the line curves downward tracing the concave belly of the duck. The california independent system operator iso has developed a duck curve to describe how massive amounts of customersited photovoltaic systems could cause problems to the states supplydemand balance on its electricity grid. Learning how to adapt to more renewables as duck curve. Data is for the state of california on october 22, 2016 a saturday, a day. The california duck curve, however, is generally thought of as something that affects only california. Data here are those from the california independent system operator caiso as logged on october 22, 2016. May 09, 2018 researchers in california call this seeming drop in demand the duck curve. Californias independent system operator, or caiso, has long cautioned that renewable power production would eventually grow to a point where supply exceeds demand on. The more solar energy capacity increases, the more the curve looks like the belly of a duck.
Data from the california independent system operator caiso the california duck curve, however, is generally thought of as something that affects only california. California feeds the duck with mandatory solar panels on new houses. May 30, 2018 it doesnt really get very cold in southern california, even in winter. Data here are those from the california independent system operator caiso as logged on october 22. The term was coined in 2012 by the california independent system operator. Are californias ccs nonfuel operating and maintenance nfom costs increasing due to more hours of generating, more starts, and more ramping. Researchers in california call this seeming drop in demand the duck curve. Jul 05, 2016 californias duck curve has arrived earlier than expected.
Midday solar surfeits, steep evening ramps, and the shifting of a states electricity. Oct, 2014 deep dive how california is incentivizing solar to solve the duck curve southfacing systems produce more solar, but westfacing panels may produce more valuable solar to the grid. Probabilistic duck curve in high pv penetration power system. And that duck shaped chart highlights the greatest. Californias midday solar power glut has become obvious. It seems like the energy storage yesterday was used to smooth out bumps in. You just wont be able to offset peak demand from distributed solar in new england to the degree possible in california. Overgeneration from solar energy in california nrel. Fortunately, thats not the only change in their building regulations. California, new york, and massachusetts are already ahead of the ruling, and texas is following suit. The socalled california duck curve left has become wellknown around the world. The california duck curve is realand growing faster than expected we analyzed the daytime minimum net load in the month of march to understand. Our research confirmed that the 20 duck curve prediction made by caiso is coming true, but.
Duck hunting at the california independent system operator. Though this problem has nothing to do with waterfoul. Texas does not yet have californias duck curve, but e. The significant drop during midday the duck s back is caused by the large power input from solar resources. The duck curve is a phenomenon that has become increasingly problematic in recent years, as more solar power has come on line.
Scottmadden previously performed original research employing five years of california independent system operator caiso data to examine the duck curve and its drivers. The duck curve is a snapshot of a 24hour period in california during springtimewhen this effect is most extreme because its sunny but temperatures remain cool, so demand for electricity is low since people arent using electricity for air conditioning or heating. California wholesale electricity prices are higher at the. The california duck curve chart and data by the international energy agency. The california duck curve is real, and bigger than expected. In utilityscale electricity generation, the duck curve is a graph of power production over the course of a day that shows the timing imbalance between peak demand and renewable energy production.
Utility grid customers across the new england region used more grid energy in the evening than they did during the daytime for the first time in history april 21, according to a local news report. The california duck curve is real, and bigger than expected 88 back in 20, california s grid operator caiso released a report on how the growth of solar power was going to change the states. Eia data reveals californias real and growing duck curve midday solar surfeits, steep evening ramps, and the shifting of a states electricity demandsupply balance. The ability to efficiently store power during lowdemand hours and withdraw it during highdemand hours would allow the curve to be flattened even further. Solving the problem with solar energy in california ge reports. In february 2008, a team of nrel analysts led by paul denholm published a paper that examined how to plan for future largescale integration of solar photovoltaic pv generation on the electric grid. May 29, 2017 the difference in the duck curve and a regular load chart is that the duck curve shows two high points of demand and one very low point of demand, with the ramp up in between being extremely sharp. California s duck curve has arrived earlier than expected california grid operator underestimated speed of solar uptake by at least 4 years and the belly of the duck is. The california duck curve that will jolt its power grid. The california duck curve is real, and bigger than expected 88 back in 20, californias grid operator caiso released a report on how the growth of solar power was going to change the states. The duck curve is the product of a 20 analysis of projected electric load for 2012 through 2020 undertaken by the california iso to better understand how increasing renewable resource. California duck curve with mobility data generated from the vehicletogrid simulator. California has a project that is simulating the output every half hour from these photovoltaic systems so the system operator can manage its hourbyhour power supplydemand balance. To do so, we decided to explore the following questions.
Californias combined cycle costs in the age of the duck curve. Oct 12, 2017 california gets quacking on ending duck curve problem senate bill 338, which mandates that utilities come up with nongas generation options to meet peak demand, was signed into law by governor jerry brown. How california is incentivizing solar to solve the duck curve. In response to an everincreasing volume of intermittent renewable energypredominantly solar, caiso began preparing for the impacts it will have on net load. A few years ago, the california independent system operator iso, or caiso, put out a short paper on the duck curve that got a lot of attention. Not 1%, but rd of 1% is how much of a bite out of the duck curve that energy storage is eating. Learn about the duck curve and how solar can help balance hourly energy loads. California closer to creating energy storage rebate for. A more detailed look at the california grid data energy. Example of an analysis of how the duck curve shape can be modified to. In 2020, when 33% of california s electricity is supposed to come from renewable sources, the net load curve will look like a duck. Daily chart what a tenyearold duck can teach us about. This duck curve is solar energys greatest challenge vox. Figure 1 shows a classic illustration of the duck curve.
Oct, 2016 the california duck curve also remains a matter of concern. Energy storage and the california duck curve stanford university. California gets quacking on ending duck curve problem pv. May 09, 2018 california researchers discovered a peculiarity in their states electric load curves, that started to look more and more like a duck. The renewable train has left the station, frigo said. Feb 26, 2018 ten years of analyzing the duck chart how an nrel discovery in 2008 is helping enable more solar on the grid today feb. Data acquired by tracing the original caiso graph with 20 mw precision. The california duck curve also remains a matter of concern.
Are california s ccs running more and more often to support the duck curve year round. California combinedcycle costs in the age of the duck curve. Dec, 2016 but some of the best solutions to the california duck curve problem may come from breakthroughs in energystorage technology. The duck curve is solar energys greatest challenge. California feeds the duck with mandatory solar panels on. A field guide to the duck chart paul denholm, matthew oconnell. The actual data confirms the prediction and shows it to have been. The economist looks at the duck curve, goes quackers. Energy nerds love drawing shapes out of power curves as much as kids love spotting them in the clouds. Scottmadden finds important nuances in analysis of california.
In new england you have the need for heating as well electricity for lighting, etc. The california independent system operator caiso has been monitoring and analyzing the duck curve and its future expectations for about a half a century now and their biggest finding is the growing gap between morning and evening hours prices relative to midday hours prices. Californias antelope valley sits at the edge of the mojave desert. Weve covered the growth of the duck over the halfdecade since the term was coined by california state grid operator caiso, named after the shape of a grid with midday solar bellies and steep evening necks in its supplydemand curve. Us grid operators, utilities getting to know their duck curves. Since its discovery, the duck curve has become an emblem of the challenges faced by power system operators when integrating variable renewables on the grid. California gets quacking on ending duck curve problem. May 10, 2019 while the hourtohour changes in caisos duck curve are steeper than the changes in my graph, the former uses a modified vertical scale and focuses on the impact of solar power while the latter. Introduction pevs provide a compelling mechanism for demandside management in the smart grid. Hang out with people who think a lot about electricity and renewable energy for an afternoon, and sooner or later youll hear them talk about a duck. California researchers discovered a peculiarity in their states electric load curves, that started to look more and more like a duck. It highlights concerns that the conventional power system will be unable to accommodate the ramp rate and range needed to fully utilize solar energy. This leads to some technical challenges, like ramping up gasfired power plants quickly, and making sure that too much solar power doesnt overload the grid.
1445 365 1346 119 852 1415 300 349 649 1518 464 801 1534 1087 459 641 1088 1624 930 772 69 384 98 1020 1383 344 1103 807 337 294 1140